This event group covers the NBA game between the Dallas Mavericks and Cleveland Cavaliers scheduled for March 15, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET. Markets span moneyline, spread, over/under totals, first-half variants, and individual player prop bets (points, rebounds, assists). Resolution depends on the final official NBA box score and game completion status.
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets across Polymarket and Kalshi use the same resolution framework: official NBA box score as the single source of truth, with identical handling of postponements (remain open), cancellations (50-50), and overtime inclusion.
Primary resolution logic:
Official NBA box score published on NBA.com
Core resolution logic:
Moneyline (Mavericks vs. Cavaliers): resolves to the team with the higher final score; if tied, resolves 50-50
Spread markets: Cavaliers cover if they win by the stated margin or more (e.g., -3.5 means win by 4+); Mavericks cover otherwise; ties resolve to Mavericks
Over/Under totals: resolve to Over if combined score meets or exceeds the threshold (e.g., O/U 239.5 resolves Over at 240+); otherwise Under
First-half markets: resolve based on halftime score only, using identical logic to full-game markets
Player props (Points, Rebounds, Assists): resolve to Yes if player exceeds the stated threshold; No if at or below threshold; No if player is inactive or does not play
Game postponement: all markets remain open until game is completed
Game cancellation with no make-up: all markets resolve 50-50
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Overtime inclusion: All markets explicitly include overtime periods in their resolution. A game that goes to overtime is treated as a single continuous event; the final score after all overtime periods determines all outcomes.
Tied game at end of regulation: Spread markets resolve to Mavericks if the game is tied (Cavaliers do not cover any negative spread). Moneyline markets resolve 50-50 if halftime is tied (first-half moneyline only); full-game moneyline would proceed to overtime.
Player inactivity: All player prop markets (points, rebounds, assists) resolve to No if the player is listed as inactive or does not take the court at any point during the game, regardless of the threshold.
Game postponement: If the game is postponed, all markets remain open and do not resolve until the game is actually completed. There is no time limit on when the make-up game must occur.
Game cancellation without make-up: If the game is canceled entirely with no scheduled make-up game, all markets (moneyline, spreads, totals, player props, first-half variants) resolve 50-50.
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately after the final official NBA box score is published on NBA.com following game completion. For first-half markets, resolution occurs at halftime. For postponed games, resolution is deferred until the rescheduled game is completed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.