TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (W)
Volume:
$411,952
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the WBB game between Marshall Thundering Herd and Arkansas State Red Wolves on April 1 at 8:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic is fundamentally broken and resolves to YES for every possible outcome (Marshall wins OR Arkansas State wins), making the market logically unresolvable. Polymarket correctly resolves to a single winner based on final game score.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi. The market contains a logical contradiction: both 'If Marshall wins...then YES' and 'If Arkansas St. wins...then YES' means the market resolves YES regardless of outcome, rendering it unresolvable. Polymarket is the only reliable market in this group.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier (correct logic): Resolves to either 'Marshall Thundering Herd' or 'Arkansas State Red Wolves' based on final score, with 50-50 split only if game is canceled entirely. Key quote: 'If the Marshall Thundering Herd win, the market will resolve to Marshall Thundering Herd. If the Arkansas State Red Wolves win, the market will resolve to Arkansas State Red Wolves.'
- Kalshi: Outlier (data integrity failure): Contains a logical contradiction where both possible game outcomes (Marshall wins OR Arkansas St. wins) are mapped to YES, making the market unresolvable. Key quote: 'If Marshall wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Arkansas St. wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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