TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Maple Leafs vs. Kings
Description
On April 4, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, the Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Los Angeles Kings in an NHL regular season game. Markets cover three dimensions: (1) match winner (Maple Leafs vs. Kings), (2) combined goals scored (Over/Under at 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 thresholds), and (3) margin of victory (blowout outcomes exceeding 1.5 or 2.5 goals). All markets include shootout adjustments (+1 goal to winner) and 50-50 resolution if the game is canceled without rescheduling.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi markets focus exclusively on goal-differential outcomes (spread-based resolution), while Polymarket offers both moneyline (winner) and total-goals (over/under) markets. The platforms resolve on fundamentally different event dimensions: Kalshi requires a spread threshold to be met, whereas Polymarket's moneyline resolves on any win regardless of margin, and its totals resolve on combined scoring independent of winner.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Kalshi's spread markets, your outcome depends on the margin of victory (e.g., Kings must win by 2+ goals). On Polymarket's moneyline, only the winner matters—a 1-goal Kings win resolves YES for Kings. On Polymarket's totals, the combined score is what matters, not who wins. Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket moneyline outcomes will align; they diverge whenever the winning margin is exactly 1 goal.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves all four markets exclusively on goal-differential thresholds (spread logic). Markets 1-2 resolve YES only if Los Angeles wins by over 1.5 or 2.5 goals; Markets 3-4 resolve YES only if Toronto wins by over 1.5 or 2.5 goals. No moneyline or total-goals markets are offered. Key quote: 'If Los Angeles wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers three separate market types: (a) moneyline (Markets 2, 4: resolve YES for Maple Leafs or Kings based on any win, regardless of margin); (b) spread markets (Markets 12, 14, 24: resolve based on 1.5 or 2.5 goal margins, mirroring Kalshi logic); and (c) total-goals markets (Markets 5-11, 16-23, 26-29: resolve based on combined scoring thresholds from 4.5 to 13.5 goals, independent of winner). Key quote: 'If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to Maple Leafs. If the Kings win, the market will resolve to Kings' (moneyline); 'This market will resolve to Over if the Maple Leafs and Kings combine to score 6 or more goals' (totals).
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