TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks
Volume:
$2,578,540
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
On March 30, 2024 at 10:00 PM ET, the Toronto Maple Leafs face the Anaheim Ducks in a regular-season NHL matchup. Markets track both the moneyline winner and multiple over/under total goals thresholds (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5), with all outcomes determined by final regulation, overtime, and shootout scoring.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi settles on goal-differential outcomes (win margins of 1.5+ or 2.5+ goals), while Polymarket settles on combined total goals, moneyline winner, and spread outcomes. The platforms use fundamentally different resolution metrics for the same game.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Kalshi, your outcome depends entirely on the margin of victory (how many goals one team wins by). If you bet on Polymarket, your outcome depends on total combined goals, the winner, or the spread. A 4-3 Maple Leafs win resolves YES on Kalshi (over 1.5 goal margin) but may resolve differently on Polymarket depending on which specific market you chose. Ensure your bet aligns with the resolution metric you expect.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi resolves based exclusively on goal-differential thresholds. All four markets resolve YES if either team wins by over 1.5 goals OR over 2.5 goals. There is no moneyline, total goals, or spread market. Key quote: 'If Anaheim wins by over 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Toronto wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket offers five distinct resolution types: moneyline (Maple Leafs vs. Ducks winner), four over/under total-goals markets (at 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 combined goals), and one spread market (Ducks -1.5). Each market resolves independently on its own metric. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Over if the Maple Leafs and Ducks combine to score 8 or more goals' (for O/U 7.5) and 'If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to Maple Leafs.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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