TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC
Volume:
$7,629,681
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC match scheduled for February 21, 2026 in the English Premier League. Markets span three outcome types (Newcastle win, Manchester City win, draw) on Polymarket and four margin-of-victory thresholds on Kalshi, all resolving based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi cover different market types (binary outcomes vs. margin thresholds) with divergent cancellation logic. Polymarket's draw market resolves YES on cancellation while win markets resolve NO, creating an internal logical inconsistency. Kalshi's cancellation handling is undocumented.Hero Tip:
If trading the draw on Polymarket, recognize that cancellation with no make-up is a YES outcome—unusual for a draw market. Cross-check Kalshi's cancellation policy before entering margin positions. Consider the game's postponement risk given the February 2026 date; Polymarket keeps markets open, but Kalshi's behavior is unclear.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three binary outcome markets (Newcastle win, Manchester City win, draw). Newcastle and Manchester City win markets resolve NO if game is canceled with no make-up. Draw market resolves YES if game is canceled with no make-up. All markets remain open if postponed. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Key Quote: Draw market—'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "Yes".' Win markets—'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".' This creates a logical contradiction: cancellation cannot simultaneously be a draw outcome and a non-outcome.
- Kalshi: Four margin-of-victory markets: Newcastle >2.5 goals, Manchester City >2.5 goals, Manchester City >1.5 goals, Newcastle >1.5 goals. All resolve YES if the specified margin is exceeded after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation, postponement, or tie-handling language provided in source data. Scope: EPL professional soccer, originally scheduled Feb 21, 2026. Key Quote: 'If Newcastle wins by more than 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.' (No cancellation clause documented.)
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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