TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC - Halftime Result
Volume:
$96,395
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market group tracks the halftime result of the Manchester City vs. Arsenal EPL match scheduled for April 19, 2026. The outcome is determined after 45 minutes plus stoppage time, capturing whether Manchester City wins, Arsenal wins, or the teams are tied at the halftime interval.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market resolves YES for all three possible halftime outcomes (Manchester City win, Arsenal win, or draw), making it logically impossible to distinguish between outcomes. Polymarket offers three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive resolution logic, creating a fundamental structural incompatibility.Hero Tip:
Avoid the Kalshi market entirely—it will resolve YES regardless of the halftime result, making it worthless for prediction. Use Polymarket's three separate markets (Man City leading, Arsenal leading, Draw) to express directional views on the halftime outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: All three resolution criteria (Arsenal win, Tie, Manchester City win) resolve to YES. The market description states 'If Arsenal is the winner...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Tie is the result...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Manchester City is the winner...then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction where the market resolves YES for every possible halftime outcome, rendering it non-functional as a prediction market.
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: (1) Manchester City leading at halftime resolves YES only if Man City wins the first 45 minutes; (2) Draw at halftime resolves YES only if the score is tied after 45 minutes; (3) Arsenal leading at halftime resolves YES only if Arsenal wins the first 45 minutes. Exactly one of these three markets will resolve YES, with the others resolving NO.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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