TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Magic vs. Mavericks
Volume:
$8,182,938
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the NBA game between the Orlando Magic and Dallas Mavericks scheduled for April 3, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET. The market resolves based on which team wins the game, with the final score including any overtime periods determining the outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for ANY outcome (either team winning), making it logically incoherent and fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures mutually exclusive outcomes (Magic win, Mavericks win, or specific conditions). This is a data integrity failure on Kalshi's part.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi moneyline market. Its resolution rules guarantee YES regardless of game outcome, which violates basic market logic. All Polymarket markets (moneyline, spreads, player props, totals) are resolvable and internally consistent. Focus trading activity on Polymarket.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's moneyline market states 'If Dallas wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Orlando wins... then the market resolves to Yes,' creating a logical contradiction where both outcomes resolve YES. This makes the market unresolvable and violates fundamental market design. Key quote: 'If Dallas wins the Orlando at Dallas professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Orlando wins the Orlando at Dallas professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Aligned with sound market logic: Polymarket's moneyline market correctly defines mutually exclusive outcomes: 'If the Magic win, the market will resolve to Magic. If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to Mavericks.' All 27 Polymarket prop markets (player points, rebounds, assists, spreads, totals, first-half markets) use consistent, resolvable logic with clear thresholds and a single authoritative source (NBA.com official box score). Key quote: 'If the Magic win, the market will resolve to Magic. If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to Mavericks.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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