TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Magic vs. 76ers
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 15 at 7:30PM ET: If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic". If the 76ers win, the market will resolve to "76ers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different event scopes. Kalshi's market resolves YES for ANY outcome of the game (either team winning), making it logically unresolvable as a binary market. Polymarket offers 26 distinct markets covering specific player props, team outcomes, spreads, and totals with clear resolution criteria.Hero Tip:
Avoid the Kalshi market entirely — it is logically broken and will resolve YES regardless of outcome. All meaningful trading should occur on Polymarket, which provides 26 properly-structured markets with clear thresholds, sources (NBA.com official box scores), and edge-case handling (postponement, cancellation, player inactivity).Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's market states 'If Philadelphia wins the Orlando at Philadelphia professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Orlando wins the Orlando at Philadelphia professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction — the market resolves YES for both possible outcomes, rendering it unresolvable as a binary prediction market.
- Polymarket: Aligned with proper market design: Polymarket offers 26 distinct markets covering moneyline (Magic vs. 76ers resolves to 'Magic' or '76ers'), spreads (76ers -1.5, -2.5, -3.5, etc.), totals (O/U 206.5 through 226.5), player props (points, rebounds, assists for Paolo Banchero, Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, Desmond Bane, Kelly Oubre Jr., Franz Wagner, VJ Edgecombe, Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr.), and first-half markets. Each resolves to YES/NO or specific outcomes based on official NBA.com box scores, with clear postponement and cancellation rules.
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