TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Macarthur FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC
Volume:
$692,158
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Macarthur FC and Newcastle United Jets FC will compete in an A-League match on April 2, 2026. This event group captures three mutually exclusive outcomes: a Macarthur win, a Newcastle win, or a draw. All markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory and unresolvable. Kalshi lists three separate YES-resolution conditions (Macarthur wins, Newcastle wins, or Tie occurs) that are mutually exclusive outcomes of a single match, making it impossible for the market to resolve to NO. Polymarket correctly structures three separate binary markets (Macarthur win, Newcastle win, Draw) that can each independently resolve YES or NO based on the match outcome.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market as written—it contains a critical logical flaw that makes settlement impossible. The market cannot resolve to NO under any realistic scenario since one of the three mutually exclusive outcomes must occur. Polymarket's three separate markets are the only resolvable structure for this event group.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi presents a single market with three separate YES-resolution conditions that are mutually exclusive outcomes of the same match ('If Macarthur wins...then YES. If Newcastle wins...then YES. If Tie wins...then YES'). This creates a logical contradiction where the market must always resolve YES regardless of the actual match result, making NO resolution impossible and the market fundamentally unresolvable.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard sports betting logic: Polymarket structures three independent binary markets—one for each possible outcome (Macarthur win, Newcastle win, Draw). Each market resolves YES or NO based on whether that specific outcome occurs, with clear NO conditions ('Otherwise, this market will resolve to No'). This is the only logically coherent structure for a three-outcome event.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.