TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans
Volume:
$10,597,226
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans is a college basketball matchup between two NCAA Division I programs. The event group encompasses prediction markets on the game outcome, likely including moneyline (winner), point spread, and total points wagered. Resolution will be determined by the official final score as recorded by the NCAA and the institutions' official athletics records.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution logics for the same game. Kalshi settles on combined total points with multiple overlapping thresholds (136.5 to 166.5), while Polymarket settles on three distinct market types: moneyline (winner), spread (margin of victory), and over/under totals with specific thresholds (140.5 to 154.5).Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi's over-154.5 market, you are betting on a combined score exceeding 154.5 points. If you trade on Polymarket's O/U 154.5 market, you are betting on a combined score of 155 or more points — a 1-point difference in the threshold. Additionally, Polymarket offers moneyline and spread markets that Kalshi does not, creating separate trading opportunities. Verify your platform's exact threshold before placing bets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers 11 separate over-under markets, each resolving YES if the combined score exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 136.5 to 166.5 points). All markets reference the same game scheduled for March 21, 2026, but each has an independent threshold. For example, market 1 resolves YES if combined score exceeds 154.5, while market 4 resolves YES if combined score exceeds 166.5. Key quote: 'If Louisville and Michigan St. collectively score over 154.5 total points in the Louisville at Michigan St. men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers three distinct market types for the same game: (1) moneyline (winner determination), (2) multiple spread markets at different margins (-4.5, -5.5, -6.5, -7.5, -8.5, -10.5, -14.5 points), and (3) over-under totals at thresholds ranging from 140.5 to 154.5 points. The over-under markets resolve YES if combined score is 1 point higher than the stated threshold (e.g., O/U 154.5 resolves YES at 155+ points). Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Over if the Louisville Cardinals and Michigan State Spartans combine to score 155 or more points in this game' (for the 154.5 threshold market).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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