TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Texas State Bobcats
Volume:
$429,902
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a men's college basketball game between Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks and Texas State Bobcats scheduled for February 14, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. Markets include moneyline (winner), point spread (-12.5 and -13.5), and over/under total (149.5).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's moneyline market structure (Yes for either outcome) is atypical and incompatible with standard binary moneyline conventions. Polymarket offers three distinct markets (moneyline, two spreads, total) with internally consistent but mutually independent resolution logic.Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi and Polymarket as separate market ecosystems. On Polymarket, the -12.5 and -13.5 spreads are independent SKUs—a Texas State win by exactly 13 points resolves opposite outcomes. Verify Kalshi's moneyline structure with support; a Yes resolution for either winner is non-standard and may indicate a market design error.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Moneyline market resolves to Yes if Louisiana-Monroe wins OR if Texas State wins. This creates a logical contradiction: both outcomes cannot simultaneously resolve to Yes in a binary market. Quote: 'If Louisiana-Monroe wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Texas St. wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three independent markets with consistent internal logic. Moneyline resolves to team name (Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks or Texas State Bobcats). Spread -13.5 resolves Texas State if win by 14+, otherwise Louisiana-Monroe. Spread -12.5 resolves Texas State if win by 13+, otherwise Louisiana-Monroe. Over/Under 149.5 resolves Over if combined 150+. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Texas State Bobcats if the Texas State Bobcats win the game by 14 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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