TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
LoL: Team Solid vs RMD Gaming (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season
Description
This market refers to the LoL match between Team Solid and RMD Gaming in the Circuito Desafiante Regular Season, initially scheduled for March 31 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Solid" if Team Solid win the match against RMD Gaming. This market will resolve to "RMD Gaming" if RMD Gaming win the match against Team Solid. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different events. Kalshi's markets resolve based on the outcome of the Circuito Desafiante 2026 tournament championship (whether either team wins the entire season), while Polymarket's markets resolve based on specific in-game statistics from Game 1 of the single BO1 match scheduled for March 31, 2026. These are logically incompatible: Kalshi's resolution depends on tournament-level outcomes that may never occur if the match is not played or the tournament structure changes, whereas Polymarket's markets depend on actual game performance metrics.Hero Tip:
If you are betting on this event, understand that Kalshi is pricing the probability that Team Solid or RMD Gaming wins the entire Circuito Desafiante 2026 season, while Polymarket is pricing the probability of specific in-game events (kills, objectives, inhibitors) occurring in Game 1 only. These are not the same underlying event. A Kalshi YES resolution requires the match to be played AND one team to win the tournament; a Polymarket YES on Game 1 statistics requires only that Game 1 is played and the specified condition occurs. Do not assume prices across platforms are comparable.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi's two markets both resolve YES if either Team Solid or RMD Gaming wins the Circuito Desafiante 2026 championship tournament, with the match originally scheduled for March 31, 2026 as the trigger event. The resolution is binary and tournament-level: 'If RMD Gaming wins the Circuito Desafiante 2026: RMD Gaming vs. Team Solid League of Legends match originally scheduled for Mar 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Team Solid wins the Circuito Desafiante 2026: RMD Gaming vs. Team Solid League of Legends match originally scheduled for Mar 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This means both Kalshi markets resolve YES for the same outcome (either team winning the tournament), creating a logical contradiction where exactly one market should resolve YES in a typical winner-take-all structure.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket's five markets all resolve based on specific in-game performance metrics during Game 1 only, independent of tournament outcomes or match results. Markets resolve YES/NO based on whether both teams destroy inhibitors, whether any player achieves a penta/quadra kill, whether both teams slay Baron Nashor, whether both teams slay a dragon, and the parity of total combined kills. The main match-winner market resolves to 'Team Solid' or 'RMD Gaming' based on who wins the single BO1 match. All Polymarket markets explicitly state: 'If Game 1 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 1 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50,' and 'If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50.'
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.