TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Group Stage
Description
This market refers to the LoL match between SK Gaming and Team Heretics in the LEC Group Stage, initially scheduled for March 29 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "SK Gaming" if SK Gaming win the match against Team Heretics. This market will resolve to "Team Heretics" if Team Heretics win the match against SK Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's two markets (questions 1-2) resolve based on match winner only, without requiring game completion or series format validation. Polymarket's 46 markets require full series completion, specific game play, and detailed in-game event tracking. Kalshi's markets are fundamentally unresolvable as written because they do not specify BO3 format enforcement or what happens if fewer than 3 games are played.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets 1-2 until clarification is provided. Kalshi's resolution criteria are incomplete: they state 'if SK Gaming wins' or 'if Team Heretics wins' the match, but do not define what constitutes a completed match in BO3 format, whether forfeits count, or how to handle series cancellation. Polymarket markets are resolvable because they explicitly require series completion and reference gol.gg as the official source. If you hold Kalshi positions, request written clarification on whether a 2-0 series win counts as a match win, or whether all 3 games must be played.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's two markets (questions 1-2) resolve to Yes if either team 'wins the LEC 2026: Team Heretics vs. SK Gaming League of Legends match' scheduled for Mar 29, 2026, with no specification of series format, game count requirement, or completion criteria. The resolution logic is circular and incomplete: 'If SK Gaming wins the match, then the market resolves to Yes. If Team Heretics wins the match, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates logical ambiguity—both outcomes cannot simultaneously resolve to Yes, yet the rules do not specify which team's win resolves which market, nor do they define what 'winning the match' means in a BO3 context.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard esports resolution practice: Polymarket's 46 markets explicitly require series completion, specify game-by-game outcomes, and define edge cases (cancellation, forfeit, delay beyond 7 days, remake). For example, market 2 (Games Total O/U 2.5) resolves Over if 3+ games are played, Under if fewer than 3 are played, and 50-50 if the match is canceled or delayed beyond 7 days. Market 32 (Series Winner) resolves to the team that wins the series, with 50-50 resolution for cancellation, tie, or delay beyond 7 days. All Polymarket markets cite gol.gg as the primary resolution source with a 2-hour fallback to credible reporting. This structure is complete and resolvable.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.