TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
LoL: Oh My God vs Ultra Prime (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 1
Volume:
$841,297
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market group tracks the outcome of a League of Legends best-of-three (BO3) match between Oh My God and Ultra Prime, scheduled for March 28, 2026, as part of the Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 1. The market resolves to Yes if either team wins the match, creating a tautological condition where resolution is guaranteed regardless of outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Kalshi resolves based on the tournament winner (either team winning the Esports World Cup China Qualifier 2026), while Polymarket resolves based on specific in-game events during individual games (dragon slays, inhibitor destruction, kills, etc.). These are logically independent: a team can win the tournament without playing Game 3, or Game 3 may never occur, causing Polymarket markets to resolve 50-50 while Kalshi's outcome is determined.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on tournament outcome only. If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on granular in-game mechanics that may never materialize if the series ends early (e.g., 2-0). Do not assume Kalshi's YES (tournament winner) implies Polymarket's YES on any specific game event. The two platforms are measuring entirely different things.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi resolves based on tournament outcome only. Both markets (Kalshi #1 and #2) state: 'If [team] wins the Esports World Cup China Qualifier 2026: Ultra Prime vs. Oh My God League of Legends match originally scheduled for Mar 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This is a binary tournament-winner market with no game-level detail. Resolution source is implicit (tournament results), and there is no contingency for individual game events.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 40+ markets, each tied to specific in-game events (Game 1/2/3 winners, dragon slays, baron kills, inhibitor destruction, kill counts, first blood, multi-kill achievements, odd/even kills). Each market includes explicit 50-50 resolution clauses if the relevant game is never played (e.g., 'If Game 3 is not played because the series result has already been determined... this market will resolve to 50-50'). Primary resolution source is https://gol.gg/esports/home with a 2-hour fallback to credible reporting. Polymarket's logic is game-centric and conditional on game completion.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.