TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stage
Volume:
$2,272,117
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group comprises 35 prediction markets across Polymarket and Kalshi covering a best-of-three League of Legends match between Karmine Corp and Team Vitality in the LEC Group Stage, originally scheduled for March 28, 2026 at 11:15 AM ET. Markets span match outcomes, individual game winners, objective control (dragons, barons, inhibitors), kill statistics, and rare multi-kill events across all three potential games.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Kalshi resolves based on match outcome (winner of BO3), while Polymarket resolves based on individual game-level metrics (kills, dragons, objectives, multikills). These are orthogonal settlement values with no logical overlap.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge Kalshi and Polymarket markets in this group — they settle on completely different events. A Kalshi YES (Team Vitality wins BO3) tells you nothing about whether Polymarket's Game 1 dragon market resolves YES. Treat each platform's markets as independent prediction sets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi offers only two markets, both resolving to match-level outcomes (BO3 winner). Market 1 states 'If Team Vitality wins the LEC 2026 match... then the market resolves to Yes' and Market 2 states 'If Karmine Corp wins the LEC 2026 match... then the market resolves to Yes.' Both markets resolve YES if their named team wins, creating a logical impossibility (both cannot be YES simultaneously). Kalshi provides no game-level or objective-level markets.
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket offers 134 markets spanning match outcome, individual game winners, and granular in-game metrics (kills, dragons, barons, inhibitors, multikills, first blood, kill thresholds). Each market resolves independently based on specific game events or cumulative statistics. For example, 'Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?' resolves YES only if both teams slay at least one elemental dragon during Game 1, regardless of match outcome. Polymarket's resolution source is gol.gg/esports/home with a 2-hour fallback to credible reporting.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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