TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B
Description
This market refers to the LoL Elimination match between JD Gaming and LOUD in the First Stand Group B, initially scheduled for March 19 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win the match against LOUD. This market will resolve to "LOUD" if LOUD win the match against JD Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes and sources. Kalshi resolves on a binary outcome (either team wins the match), while Polymarket offers granular game-level markets with specific resolution conditions tied to individual game completion, forfeit handling, and gol.gg as the primary source. Kalshi's vague binary structure creates ambiguity about which match result triggers resolution, whereas Polymarket's detailed markets specify exact thresholds, game-by-game logic, and fallback rules.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on a simple binary (LOUD or JD Gaming wins the match), but Kalshi's rules do not specify how forfeits, walkovers, or incomplete series are handled. On Polymarket, each game-level market has explicit resolution rules: if a game is not completed, most markets resolve 50-50; if the series is canceled or delayed beyond 7 days without play, all markets resolve 50-50. Polymarket also counts forfeit wins toward series totals and game counts, while Kalshi's handling is silent. This creates settlement risk: a series that is abandoned or heavily delayed may resolve differently on each platform.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi offers only two binary markets (one for each team winning the match) with minimal resolution detail. The rules state 'If LOUD wins the First Stand 2026: LOUD vs. JD Gaming League of Legends match originally scheduled for Mar 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' and similarly for JD Gaming, but do not specify how forfeits, walkovers, incomplete series, or delays beyond 7 days are resolved. No primary source is named.
- Polymarket: Aligned with detailed esports settlement standards: Polymarket provides 144 granular markets covering individual game winners, objective-based outcomes (Baron, Dragon, Inhibitor, Penta Kill), kill counts with multiple thresholds, and series-level markets (Games Total O/U 3.5, O/U 4.5, Handicap). Each market specifies: primary source is gol.gg; if a game is not completed, most markets resolve 50-50; if the match is canceled or delayed beyond 7 days without play beginning, all markets resolve 50-50; forfeits and walkovers are counted toward series totals if the match is completed; if the match begins but is not completed and one team wins via opponent forfeiture, specific markets resolve based on completed games or 50-50 depending on context. Example: 'If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.'
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