TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
LoL: Estral Esports vs RMD Gaming (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season
Volume:
$68,992
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market resolves based on the outcome of a single League of Legends best-of-one match between Estral Esports and RMD Gaming, scheduled for March 30, 2026, in the Circuito Desafiante Regular Season. The market resolves to Yes if either team wins the match, creating a tautological condition that effectively makes this a non-binary event with unclear settlement intent.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines a complete event group with 5 distinct markets (match winner, Baron, Quadra Kill, Penta Kill, Dragon, Inhibitor, Odd/Even Kills), all tied to Game 1 of a BO1 series with detailed resolution rules and a common primary source (gol.gg). Kalshi presents only a single binary market on match winner with no Game 1 specification, no secondary markets, and fundamentally different scope and structure, making the two platforms incompatible for unified settlement.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket settle the same way. Polymarket's match-winner market is one of five interdependent Game 1 markets all sourced from gol.gg with detailed forfeit/remake/delay rules. Kalshi's market is a standalone match-outcome binary with no Game 1 qualifier and no mention of gol.gg or game-specific contingencies. If the match is delayed, forfeited, or remade, Polymarket's entire group may resolve to 50-50, but Kalshi's resolution logic is silent on these scenarios. Verify which platform you are trading on before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers a comprehensive 5-market event group all anchored to Game 1 of the BO1 match, with a unified primary source (gol.gg/esports/home) and detailed contingency rules for cancellation, delay beyond 7 days, forfeit, disqualification, walkover, remake, and incomplete games. The match-winner market resolves to 50-50 if the match is canceled, ends in a tie, is delayed beyond 7 days without a winner, or ends in forfeit/disqualification/walkover before the start. All five Game 1 markets (Baron, Quadra Kill, Penta Kill, Dragon, Inhibitor, Odd/Even Kills) share identical delay/cancellation/forfeit/remake rules and resolve to 50-50 under the same conditions. Quote: 'If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi presents a single binary match-outcome market with no Game 1 specification, no secondary markets, and no explicit contingency rules for delay, cancellation, forfeit, or remake. The market resolves YES if either team wins the match originally scheduled for Mar 30, 2026, but provides no guidance on what happens if the match is not played, is delayed indefinitely, ends in forfeit, or is remade. No primary resolution source is specified. Quote: 'If Estral Esports wins the Circuito Desafiante 2026: RMD Gaming vs. Estral Esports League of Legends match originally scheduled for Mar 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.