TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
LoL: 7REX vs Estral Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season
Description
This market refers to the LoL match between 7REX and Estral Esports in the Circuito Desafiante Regular Season, initially scheduled for March 31 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "7REX" if 7REX win the match against Estral Esports. This market will resolve to "Estral Esports" if Estral Esports win the match against 7REX. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines a complete set of game-level markets (inhibitors, kills, dragons, barons, multikills) with detailed resolution rules tied to Game 1 specifically, while Kalshi presents only a single binary market on match outcome (7REX or Estral Esports wins) with no game-level granularity. The two platforms are fundamentally incompatible in scope and settlement value.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on specific in-game events (inhibitor destruction, kill counts, objective control) during Game 1 only. If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting solely on which team wins the overall match. These are not equivalent bets — a Polymarket YES on 'Both Teams Slay Dragon' can resolve independently of the Kalshi match winner. Do not assume Kalshi's outcome predicts Polymarket's outcomes or vice versa.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket offers six distinct game-level markets (Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors, Odd/Even Total Kills, Any Player Penta Kill, Both Teams Slay Dragon, Both Teams Slay Baron, Any Player Quadra Kill) plus one match-outcome market, each with independent resolution criteria tied to Game 1 performance metrics. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if both 7REX and Estral Esports each destroy at least one enemy inhibitor during Game 1' and 'The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi offers a single binary match-outcome market with no game-level detail: 'If 7REX wins the Circuito Desafiante 2026: Estral Esports vs. 7REX League of Legends match originally scheduled for Mar 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Estral Esports wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' No resolution source, timing rules, or edge-case handling is specified.
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