TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Lithuania vs. Georgia
Volume:
$1,699,533
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Lithuania vs. Georgia is a professional international friendly soccer match scheduled for March 29, 2026. The event group contains three mutually exclusive outcome markets: Lithuania win, Georgia win, or draw. All markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Georgia win, Draw, Lithuania win) that collectively cover all possible outcomes, while Kalshi presents three separate YES/NO markets that all resolve YES regardless of the match result, creating a logical contradiction where Kalshi's markets cannot simultaneously resolve to their stated conditions.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's Lithuania vs Georgia markets. Kalshi's three markets (Georgia wins, Tie, Lithuania wins) are logically incoherent—they all resolve YES if any outcome occurs, making them unresolvable as stated. Polymarket's three mutually exclusive binary markets are the only coherent framework for this event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one resolves YES based on the match outcome. Georgia win resolves YES only if Georgia wins; Draw resolves YES only if the match ends in a draw; Lithuania win resolves YES only if Lithuania wins. All three markets reference 'the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers' with a 2-hour fallback to credible reporting, and all scope to '90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi presents three separate markets with identical resolution logic: 'If [Georgia/Tie/Lithuania] wins the match, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility—all three markets would resolve YES simultaneously regardless of the actual match outcome, since exactly one of these three outcomes must occur. No resolution source, timing, or fallback mechanism is specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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