TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Lightning vs. Senators
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 7 at 7:00PM ET: If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to "Lightning". If the Senators win, the market will resolve to "Senators". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for ANY outcome (either team winning), making it logically incoherent and unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures mutually exclusive outcomes (Lightning vs. Senators winner, plus Over/Under totals). Kalshi's binary market cannot function as written.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi's head-to-head market entirely — it is fundamentally broken and will resolve YES regardless of game outcome. Trade only on Polymarket's Lightning vs. Senators winner market, which has proper mutually exclusive resolution paths. The Over/Under markets on both platforms are functional but Kalshi's main event market is a trap.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's binary market states 'If OTT Senators wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If TB Lightning wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction where the market resolves YES for both possible outcomes, making it unresolvable. The market has no NO resolution path.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket correctly structures the event with mutually exclusive outcomes: 'If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to Lightning. If the Senators win, the market will resolve to Senators.' Only one outcome can occur, and the market resolves to exactly one of two distinct values. Polymarket also provides proper Over/Under total-goals markets with clear thresholds (3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5) and spread markets (Senators -1.5, -2.5, -3.5).
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