TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Lightning vs. Oilers
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 21 at 10:00PM ET: If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to "Lightning". If the Oilers win, the market will resolve to "Oilers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves to YES for any outcome (both Lightning win and Oilers win trigger YES), making the market logically contradictory and unresolvable. Polymarket correctly resolves to either 'Lightning' or 'Oilers' based on the game winner, with proper handling of postponements and cancellations.Hero Tip:
Do NOT trade the Kalshi market. Its resolution logic is broken — it resolves YES regardless of who wins, which violates basic binary market principles. Polymarket's markets are properly structured and tradeable. If you hold Kalshi positions, escalate to PredictionHero support immediately for clarification or cancellation.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Contains a critical logical flaw. Both resolution conditions state 'the market resolves to Yes' — 'If EDM Oilers wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If TB Lightning wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This means the market resolves YES for every possible outcome, making it unresolvable and contradicting the binary market structure.
- Polymarket: Aligned with proper binary logic: Resolves to 'Lightning' if Lightning win, 'Oilers' if Oilers win, with explicit handling for postponements (market remains open) and cancellations (50-50 split). Additionally provides four separate well-defined markets for Over/Under totals at 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 goals, plus a spread market for Lightning (-1.5), all with consistent and mutually exclusive resolution criteria.
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