TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Lightning vs. Canucks
Volume:
$719,421
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Vancouver Canucks NHL game scheduled for March 19, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. Markets cover the moneyline winner (Lightning or Canucks) and multiple over/under total goals thresholds (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5). Resolution is based on final regulation + overtime + shootout score, with shootout wins credited as +1 goal to the winning team.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic for the same game. Kalshi's market resolves YES if either team wins (a logical contradiction making it unresolvable), while Polymarket correctly resolves to either 'Lightning' or 'Canucks' based on the actual winner.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi winner market — it contains a fatal logical flaw. Both Kalshi conditions (Lightning wins OR Canucks wins) resolve to YES, meaning the market cannot distinguish outcomes. Use only Polymarket's winner and totals markets, which have clear, mutually exclusive resolution paths.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's winner market states 'If TB Lightning wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If VAN Canucks wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction where every possible outcome (Lightning win or Canucks win) resolves to YES, making the market unresolvable and data-integrity compromised. Quote: 'If TB Lightning wins the Tampa Bay at Vancouver professional hockey game scheduled for Mar 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If VAN Canucks wins the Tampa Bay at Vancouver professional hockey game scheduled for Mar 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Aligned with sound resolution logic: Polymarket correctly defines mutually exclusive outcomes — 'If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to Lightning. If the Canucks win, the market will resolve to Canucks.' Additionally, Polymarket provides four separate totals markets (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) and a spread market, all with clear thresholds and a 50-50 cancellation clause. Quote: 'If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to Lightning. If the Canucks win, the market will resolve to Canucks.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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