TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Lightning vs. Canadiens
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 9 at 7:00PM ET: If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to "Lightning". If the Canadiens win, the market will resolve to "Canadiens". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes. Kalshi resolves on goal-differential thresholds (1.5+ or 2.5+ goal margins), while Polymarket resolves on moneyline outcomes (winner only) and total goals scored (combined team totals). These are distinct market types that cannot produce aligned outcomes.Hero Tip:
Kalshi markets reward you for predicting margin-of-victory thresholds; Polymarket markets reward you for predicting the winner or total goals. A Lightning win by exactly 1 goal resolves YES on Polymarket moneyline but NO on all four Kalshi markets. Do not assume cross-platform hedging will work—these measure different things.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves on goal-differential thresholds across four separate markets. Markets resolve YES if Montreal wins by over 1.5 or 2.5 goals, OR if Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 or 2.5 goals. Key quote: 'If Montreal wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves on moneyline (winner only) and combined total goals scored. Moneyline resolves to 'Lightning' or 'Canadiens' based on final winner. Over/Under markets resolve based on combined team goals: 5+ (O/U 4.5), 6+ (O/U 5.5), 7+ (O/U 6.5), 8+ (O/U 7.5), 4+ (O/U 3.5), or 3+ (O/U 2.5). Key quote: 'If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to Lightning. If the Canadiens win, the market will resolve to Canadiens' and 'This market will resolve to Over if the Lightning and Canadiens combine to score 5 or more goals.'
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