TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Lightning vs. Bruins
Volume:
$2,300,141
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
On April 11, 2025 at 12:30 PM ET, the Tampa Bay Lightning face the Boston Bruins in an NHL matchup. Markets will resolve based on the final score including overtime and shootouts (with one goal added to the winning team's total in shootout scenarios). Multiple outcome markets track the winner, and total goals markets span thresholds from 4.5 to 7.5 goals combined.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for ANY outcome (both Lightning win AND Bruins win trigger YES), making it logically incoherent and fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures mutually exclusive outcomes (Lightning resolves to 'Lightning', Bruins resolves to 'Bruins'), with proper handling of postponement and cancellation scenarios.Hero Tip:
DO NOT trade the Kalshi moneyline market — it contains a fatal logical flaw where both possible outcomes resolve to YES, violating basic binary market principles. Polymarket's Lightning vs. Bruins market is the only tradeable option in this group. All Polymarket Over/Under and spread markets are logically sound and align with standard NHL settlement rules.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's moneyline market states 'If BOS Bruins wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If TB Lightning wins... then the market resolves to Yes', creating a logical contradiction where both mutually exclusive outcomes trigger the same YES resolution. This violates the fundamental structure of a binary market and makes settlement impossible.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard binary sports market logic: Polymarket correctly defines mutually exclusive outcomes — 'If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to Lightning' and 'If the Bruins win, the market will resolve to Bruins'. Polymarket also includes proper edge-case handling: 'If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.' All Polymarket Over/Under and spread markets follow consistent, coherent settlement rules based on final score including overtime and shootouts.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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