TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Lakers vs. Mavericks
Volume:
$12,992,658
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 5 at 7:30PM ET: If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers". If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is fundamentally broken and logically incoherent, resolving YES for both possible outcomes of the game. Polymarket provides coherent, mutually exclusive resolution criteria across all markets.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's markets for this event group. Kalshi's moneyline market (items 1-2) states the market resolves YES if either Dallas wins OR Los Angeles wins — meaning it resolves YES regardless of outcome, making it unresolvable and unhedgeable. All Polymarket markets are logically sound and tradeable.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's moneyline market contains a critical logical flaw. The market states 'If Dallas wins the Los Angeles L at Dallas professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Los Angeles L wins the Los Angeles L at Dallas professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This means the market resolves YES for all possible game outcomes, rendering it unresolvable. No resolution criteria are provided for postponement, cancellation, or any other contingency.
- Polymarket: Aligned with sound market design principles: Polymarket provides 24 coherent, mutually exclusive markets with clear resolution logic. The moneyline market (item 2) resolves to 'Lakers' if Lakers win and 'Mavericks' if Mavericks win, with explicit handling of postponement (market remains open) and cancellation (50-50 split). All spread markets (items 4, 26, 34, 68, 78, 90, 102, 106, 112, 116, 118, 122, 124, 126, 132, 138, 142) define precise point thresholds. All over/under markets (items 6, 28, 36, 88, 92, 96, 98, 100, 104, 108, 110, 114, 120, 128, 130, 134, 136, 140, 144, 146, 148, 150, 152, 154, 156) define exact combined-score thresholds. All player prop markets (items 8-24, 42-76) specify whether thresholds are inclusive or exclusive and include inactive-player clauses. First-half markets (items 80-86) clearly scope resolution to halftime only.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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