TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Lakers vs. Heat
Volume:
$19,416,952
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 19 at 8:00PM ET: If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers". If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket provides comprehensive market definitions with explicit resolution criteria, thresholds, and edge-case handling (postponement, cancellation, overtime inclusion, player inactivity rules). Kalshi provides only a binary moneyline market with no resolution details, thresholds, or contingency rules, making it fundamentally incomplete and unresolvable without additional source documentation.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's Lakers vs. Heat market without obtaining its full resolution rules from Kalshi directly. Polymarket markets are fully specified and resolvable; Kalshi's market lacks critical settlement logic. If you hold Kalshi positions, verify whether Kalshi's rules document exists separately, as the provided data is insufficient for settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier (complete specification): Polymarket provides 45 distinct markets with explicit resolution logic for each. All markets specify: (1) exact thresholds (e.g., 'more than 21.5 points', 'by 3 or more points'), (2) scope (full game including overtime, or first half only), (3) contingencies (postponement keeps market open; cancellation resolves 50-50; player inactivity resolves NO), and (4) primary source (official NBA box score at NBA.com). Example: 'Tyler Herro: Points O/U 21.5' resolves YES if Herro scores more than 21.5 points, NO if 21.5 or fewer, and NO if he is inactive. Spread markets specify point differential thresholds (e.g., 'Heat (-2.5)' resolves Heat if they win by 3+, Lakers otherwise). Over/Under markets specify combined-score thresholds (e.g., 'O/U 240.5' resolves Over at 241+, Under below 241). First-half markets explicitly resolve on halftime score only.
- Kalshi: Outlier (incomplete specification): Kalshi provides only one market: 'If Miami wins the Los Angeles L at Miami professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Los Angeles L wins the Los Angeles L at Miami professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This is a binary moneyline with no resolution source cited, no contingency rules (postponement, cancellation, overtime), no tie-breaking logic, and no reference to official NBA documentation. The market statement is logically incomplete: it specifies YES for both Miami win and Los Angeles win, but does not specify what happens if the game is postponed, canceled, or ends in a tie (if possible). No player prop markets, no spread markets, no over/under markets, and no first-half markets are provided.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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