Lakers vs. Heat

Critical divergence points:

• Polymarket: Outlier (complete specification): Polymarket provides 45 distinct markets with explicit resolution logic for each. All markets specify: (1) exact thresholds (e.g., 'more than 21.5 points', 'by 3 or more points'), (2) scope (full game including overtime, or first half only), (3) contingencies (postponement keeps market open; cancellation resolves 50-50; player inactivity resolves NO), and (4) primary source (official NBA box score at NBA.com). Example: 'Tyler Herro: Points O/U 21.5' resolves YES if Herro scores more than 21.5 points, NO if 21.5 or fewer, and NO if he is inactive. Spread markets specify point differential thresholds (e.g., 'Heat (-2.5)' resolves Heat if they win by 3+, Lakers otherwise). Over/Under markets specify combined-score thresholds (e.g., 'O/U 240.5' resolves Over at 241+, Under below 241). First-half markets explicitly resolve on halftime score only.
• Kalshi: Outlier (incomplete specification): Kalshi provides only one market: 'If Miami wins the Los Angeles L at Miami professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Los Angeles L wins the Los Angeles L at Miami professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This is a binary moneyline with no resolution source cited, no contingency rules (postponement, cancellation, overtime), no tie-breaking logic, and no reference to official NBA documentation. The market statement is logically incomplete: it specifies YES for both Miami win and Los Angeles win, but does not specify what happens if the game is postponed, canceled, or ends in a tie (if possible). No player prop markets, no spread markets, no over/under markets, and no first-half markets are provided.