TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Gamba Ōsaka
Volume:
$157,073
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming J1 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for Wednesday, April 29, 2026 between Kyōto Sanga FC and Gamba Ōsaka.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market includes an atypical cancellation clause (resolves YES if canceled) that contradicts Kalshi's standard tie-outcome-only logic. This creates platform-specific settlement risk in cancellation scenarios.Hero Tip:
Recognize the cancellation clause asymmetry. Polymarket's draw market is effectively a bet on either a draw OR cancellation, while Kalshi's is purely outcome-based. If you believe cancellation risk is material, Polymarket YES on draw becomes more valuable. Conversely, if you expect the match to be played, both platforms should converge on standard three-outcome logic (Kyōto win, draw, Gamba win).Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: Kyōto Sanga win (resolves NO if canceled), Draw (resolves YES if canceled), Gamba Ōsaka win (resolves NO if canceled). Draw market contains unique cancellation clause. Primary source is official J-League statistics within 2 hours, or credible reporting consensus if delayed. Key Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes.'
- Kalshi: Three outcome-based markets covering all possible results: Kyoto Sanga win, Tie, and Gamba win. All resolve YES only if that specific outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation clause provided; standard convention implies cancellation voids the market. Key Quote: 'If Tie wins the Kyoto Sanga vs Gamba professional Japan J1 League soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 29, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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