TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Kraken vs. Oilers
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 31 at 9:00PM ET: If the Kraken win, the market will resolve to "Kraken". If the Oilers win, the market will resolve to "Oilers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves on the winner of the game (either team winning = YES), while Polymarket resolves on multiple independent markets: moneyline (Kraken vs. Oilers winner), spread (Oilers -1.5), and over/under totals (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 goals). These are logically incompatible settlement frameworks.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket markets move together. Kalshi's YES resolves if EITHER team wins (a tautology that always resolves YES barring cancellation). Polymarket's moneyline resolves to exactly one team. If you are long Kalshi YES and short Polymarket Kraken, you face basis risk: Kalshi pays out regardless of winner, but Polymarket only pays if Kraken wins. Polymarket's over/under markets are entirely orthogonal to Kalshi's logic and settle on goal totals, not game outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines a single binary market where YES resolves if 'EDM Oilers wins' OR 'SEA Kraken wins' the game. This is a logical tautology—the market always resolves YES unless the game is canceled. The resolution source is the game outcome itself, with no reference to score totals or spreads. Quote: 'If EDM Oilers wins the Seattle at Edmonton professional hockey game scheduled for Mar 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If SEA Kraken wins the Seattle at Edmonton professional hockey game scheduled for Mar 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers five independent markets with different settlement logic: (1) Moneyline (Kraken vs. Oilers winner—resolves to exactly one team), (2) Spread Oilers -1.5 (Oilers win by 2+ goals), and (3-5) Over/Under totals at 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 combined goals. Each market has its own threshold and resolves independently. Quote: 'If the Kraken win, the market will resolve to Kraken. If the Oilers win, the market will resolve to Oilers' and 'This market will resolve to Over if the Kraken and Oilers combine to score 6 or more goals in this game.'
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