TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Kings vs. Trail Blazers
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 12 at 8:30PM ET: If the Kings win, the market will resolve to "Kings". If the Trail Blazers win, the market will resolve to "Trail Blazers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks for the same game. Kalshi resolves on Portland winning margins (11 separate thresholds from +2.5 to +35.5 points), while Polymarket resolves on game winner and spread outcomes where Trail Blazers are favored. These platforms cannot both resolve correctly on the same final score.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge between Kalshi and Polymarket on this event. If you bet YES on Kalshi (Portland wins by >X points), your outcome is inverted relative to Polymarket's Trail Blazers spread markets. Kalshi's 12 markets all resolve YES only if Portland wins; Polymarket's markets resolve YES only if Trail Blazers win. Verify which team you are actually betting on before placing trades.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi resolves all 12 markets exclusively on Portland (Trail Blazers' opponent) winning margins. Each market triggers YES if 'Portland wins the Sacramento at Portland professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 12, 2026 by more than [X] points' where X ranges from 2.5 to 35.5. This is a unidirectional framework with no Trail Blazers win outcome.
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket resolves on both game winner (Kings vs. Trail Blazers moneyline) and spread/total outcomes. The moneyline resolves to 'Kings' or 'Trail Blazers' based on final score. Spread markets resolve YES for Trail Blazers if they win by 17+ points (at -16.5), 18+ points (at -17.5), 19+ points (at -18.5), or 20+ points (at -19.5). This framework includes both teams as possible winners.
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