TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
KHL: Metallurg Magnitogorsk vs. Sibir Novosibirsk
Description
In the upcoming KHL game, scheduled for March 26 at 12:00PM ET: If Metallurg Magnitogorsk win, the market will resolve to "Metallurg Magnitogorsk". If Sibir Novosibirsk win, the market will resolve to "Sibir Novosibirsk". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic. Polymarket resolves to the winning team's name (binary outcome: Metallurg or Sibir), while Kalshi's rules create a logical contradiction where both teams winning would resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Do not trade these markets as equivalent. Polymarket will resolve to exactly one team name. Kalshi's resolution rules are internally contradictory—both 'If Metallurg wins, resolve Yes' AND 'If Sibir wins, resolve Yes' cannot both be true in a single binary outcome. Clarify Kalshi's actual intent before placing bets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves to the name of the winning team in a binary outcome. Market resolves to 'Metallurg Magnitogorsk' if Metallurg wins, or 'Sibir Novosibirsk' if Sibir wins. Includes postponement (market remains open) and cancellation (50-50 split) clauses. Key quote: 'If Metallurg Magnitogorsk win, the market will resolve to Metallurg Magnitogorsk. If Sibir Novosibirsk win, the market will resolve to Sibir Novosibirsk.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Contains a logical contradiction in its resolution rules. The market states 'If Metallurg wins, then resolve to Yes' AND 'If Sibir wins, then resolve to Yes,' which is impossible in a single binary market—both outcomes cannot simultaneously resolve to Yes. This creates an unresolvable market. Key quote: 'If Metallurg Magnitogorsk wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Sibir Novosibirsk wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
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