TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
KHL: Avangard Omsk vs. Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
Description
In the upcoming KHL game, scheduled for April 1 at 9:30AM ET: If Avangard Omsk win, the market will resolve to "Avangard Omsk". If Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk win, the market will resolve to "Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic is contradictory and unresolvable: both outcomes (Neftekhimik win OR Avangard win) resolve to YES, making it impossible to distinguish between them. Polymarket uses standard binary logic where one team winning resolves to that team's name, creating a fundamental incompatibility in settlement outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's version of this market — its rules guarantee YES resolution regardless of the actual game result, making it logically incoherent. Polymarket's market is resolvable and standard. If you hold Kalshi positions, expect either a rules correction or a disputed settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's rules state that if Neftekhimik wins the market resolves YES, AND if Avangard wins the market also resolves YES. This creates a logical contradiction where every possible outcome resolves to YES, making the market unresolvable. Key quote: 'If Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If HK Avangard Omsk wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard binary sports logic: Polymarket resolves to 'Avangard Omsk' if Avangard wins and 'Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk' if Neftekhimik wins, with clear differentiation between outcomes. Key quote: 'If Avangard Omsk win, the market will resolve to Avangard Omsk. If Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk win, the market will resolve to Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk.'
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