TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Tōkyō
Volume:
$82,343
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
JEF United Ichihara Chiba and FC Tōkyō will compete in a J1 League professional soccer match on March 18, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. This is a standard league fixture where one team will either win, lose, or draw.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution structures for the same match. Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets (FC Tōkyō win, draw, JEF win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi presents three separate YES/NO markets that can all resolve YES simultaneously if any outcome occurs, creating logical contradiction and double-counting risk.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi prices are arbitrage-free. On Polymarket, the three markets should sum to ~100% (one winner). On Kalshi, all three markets will resolve YES regardless of outcome, making them unsuitable for directional betting. Verify your platform before trading—Polymarket is a proper match outcome market; Kalshi's structure appears to be a data error or misclassification.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one outcome (FC Tōkyō win, draw, or JEF win) resolves YES and the other two resolve NO. Resolution is based on official J-League statistics or credible reporting within 2 hours post-match, covering only 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Cancellation with no make-up resolves the draw market YES and the win markets NO.
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi presents three separate markets framed as 'If [outcome] wins/ties, then resolves to Yes,' but the structure implies all three markets resolve YES whenever the match concludes with any result (United Chiba win, Tokyo win, or tie). This creates a logical impossibility: a single match cannot simultaneously trigger all three YES resolutions under standard sports logic, yet the market language does not establish mutual exclusivity or a tiebreaker mechanism.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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