A college basketball game between Jackson State Tigers and Texas Southern Tigers scheduled for February 28, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. Multiple prediction markets cover the moneyline outcome, point spreads at different thresholds (-4.5 and -5.5), and over/under totals at different levels (151.5 and 152.5 points).
Kalshi market has a logical contradiction: both Jackson State victory and Texas Southern victory are stated to resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable. Polymarket markets are logically sound and internally consistent across all variants.
Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi until corrected. The market cannot resolve to a single outcome. Polymarket moneyline, spreads, and totals are all well-defined and resolvable based on final game score including overtime.
Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket: Moneyline resolves to winner name (Jackson State Tigers or Texas Southern Tigers). Spreads resolve based on margin: -5.5 requires 6+ point TSU win, -4.5 requires 5+ point TSU win. Totals resolve Over at 152+ combined (151.5 line) or 153+ combined (152.5 line). Postponement keeps market open; cancellation with no make-up resolves 50-50. Key quote: 'The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.'
Kalshi: Market definition states both outcomes resolve to Yes: 'If Jackson St. wins... then resolves to Yes' AND 'If Texas Southern wins... then resolves to Yes'. This creates a logical impossibility where a binary Yes/No contract cannot differentiate between the two mutually exclusive game outcomes. No edge case handling provided.
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