TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Islanders vs. Maple Leafs
Volume:
$2,194,421
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers an NHL game between the New York Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs scheduled for March 17, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), spread betting (margin of victory), and total goals (over/under various thresholds).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's spread resolution logic lists two separate YES conditions (>1.5 and >2.5 goal margins) without clarifying whether both must occur or if either triggers YES. Polymarket's spread is a standard binary: Islanders -1.5 means Islanders win by 2+ goals to resolve YES. This creates ambiguity in how Kalshi's market actually settles.Hero Tip:
For Polymarket: Treat the Islanders (-1.5) spread as a standard ATS bet—Islanders must win by 2+ goals. For Kalshi: The dual YES conditions (>1.5 AND >2.5) are redundant if both must occur; if either suffices, the market is effectively a >1.5 margin bet. Contact Kalshi support to clarify the logical operator (AND vs OR) before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Lists four YES conditions: (1) Islanders win by >1.5, (2) Toronto wins by >1.5, (3) Islanders win by >2.5, (4) Toronto wins by >2.5. The logic is ambiguous: do all four conditions apply, or is it an OR statement? If OR, then any margin >1.5 triggers YES. If AND, the market is logically impossible (a team cannot win by both >1.5 and >2.5 simultaneously in a single game).
- Polymarket: Spread: Islanders (-1.5) resolves to Islanders if they win by 2 or more goals; otherwise Maple Leafs. This is a standard binary ATS (against-the-spread) market with a clear threshold of 2-goal margin.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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