TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Ipswich Town FC vs. Birmingham City FC
Volume:
$476,917
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Ipswich Town FC and Birmingham City FC will compete in an EFL Championship match on April 6, 2026. This event group captures three mutually exclusive outcomes: an Ipswich victory, a Birmingham victory, or a draw. All markets measure the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket structures three mutually exclusive binary markets (Ipswich win, Birmingham win, draw), where exactly one resolves YES. Kalshi structures three independent YES/NO markets that can all resolve YES simultaneously if any outcome occurs, creating a logical contradiction where all three Kalshi markets resolve YES regardless of the match result.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across both platforms assuming equivalent exposure. On Polymarket, buying all three markets at fair odds should cost ~100 cents total (mutually exclusive). On Kalshi, the same three markets can all resolve YES, making them not mutually exclusive. Arbitrage or hedge positions may behave unexpectedly depending on which platform you use.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers three separate binary markets structured as mutually exclusive outcomes. Each market resolves YES for exactly one outcome (Ipswich win, Birmingham win, or draw) and NO for all others. The description states 'If Ipswich Town FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No,' establishing that only one of the three markets can resolve YES.
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi structures the same event as three independent YES/NO markets with identical resolution conditions. Market 1 resolves YES if Birmingham wins, Market 2 resolves YES if Ipswich wins, and Market 3 resolves YES if Tie occurs. Because each market independently resolves YES for its respective outcome, all three markets will resolve YES when the match concludes (one for the actual result). This contradicts the mutually exclusive logic of Polymarket.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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