TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers
Volume:
$821,508
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Illinois State Redbirds will face the Dayton Flyers in a men's college basketball game scheduled for March 25, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. Polymarket offers a binary winner-take-all market, while Kalshi provides multiple over/under total points markets at various thresholds (123.5 to 153.5 points). The final outcome will be determined by the official final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution frameworks. Kalshi settles exclusively on total points over/under thresholds (12 binary markets), while Polymarket covers moneyline, multiple spread levels, and total points over/under (26 markets across different categories). The platforms do not overlap in market structure or settlement logic.Hero Tip:
These are separate market ecosystems with no direct overlap. Kalshi traders are betting purely on combined scoring thresholds; Polymarket traders are betting on game outcome, margin of victory, and scoring totals. A single game result will resolve each platform's markets independently using their own frameworks. Do not assume positions on one platform hedge positions on the other.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers 12 binary markets, all settling on whether combined Illinois State and Dayton points exceed a specific threshold (123.5, 126.5, 129.5, 132.5, 135.5, 138.5, 141.5, 144.5, 147.5, 150.5, 153.5, 155.5). Each market resolves YES if the combined total is strictly greater than the stated threshold, NO otherwise. Example: 'If Illinois St. and Dayton collectively score over 153.5 total points in the Illinois St. at Dayton men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 26 markets across three categories: (1) moneyline (Illinois State Redbirds vs. Dayton Flyers, resolves to winner), (2) spreads at 11 different levels (ranging from Illinois State -13.5 to Dayton -7.5, each resolving based on margin of victory), and (3) totals at 13 different thresholds (ranging from 111.5 to 140.5, each resolving YES if combined points meet or exceed the threshold). Example spread: 'This market will resolve to Dayton Flyers if the Dayton Flyers win the game by 8 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Illinois State Redbirds.' Example total: 'This market will resolve to Over if the Illinois State Redbirds and Dayton Flyers combine to score 140 or more points in this game.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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