TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
HYPE Up or Down - April 17, 5PM ET
Volume:
$1,201
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the HYPE token (UHYPEUSDRTI per CF Benchmarks) will trade above various price thresholds at exactly 5 PM EDT on April 17, 2026. The settlement is based on the 60-second simple average of the benchmark rate immediately before the 5 PM EDT timestamp. Traders are essentially betting on HYPE's price performance across a granular ladder of price levels ranging from $16.9999 to $65.9999.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different data sources and resolution methodologies. Kalshi references CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI index with 50 overlapping price thresholds, while Polymarket uses Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison. These are incompatible settlement value definitions that will produce different outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do not arbitrage between these markets. On Kalshi, you are betting on whether a specific crypto index exceeds one of 50 price levels. On Polymarket, you are betting on directional price movement (close >= open) on Binance futures. A price move on Binance may not correlate with the CF Benchmarks index, and vice versa. Treat them as separate events.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Market resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT on April 17, 2026 exceeds ANY of 50 specified price thresholds ranging from $16.9999 to $65.9999. This is a settlement value approach tied to a specific third-party index. Key quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Market resolves to 'Up' if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle on Binance futures beginning at the specified time. This is a directional comparison (close >= open) on a single exchange. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the HYPE/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Down.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.