TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
HYPE Up or Down - April 14, 5PM ET
Volume:
$241
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the HYPE token price moves up or down on April 14, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle open/close comparison on Binance HYPE/USDT futures, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI index with 37 distinct price thresholds ranging from $20.9999 to $59.9999.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources (Binance HYPE/USDT vs CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI), different measurement windows (1-hour candle vs 60-second average), and different resolution mechanics (binary direction vs 37 absolute price thresholds). The markets measure different aspects of price behavior and cannot be treated as equivalent.Hero Tip:
Polymarket is a directional momentum play: does price close higher than it opened within a 1-hour window on Binance futures? Kalshi is a price level play: is the CF Benchmarks index above a specific threshold at exactly 5 PM EDT? These require different trading strategies. Confirm which data source and index aligns with your hedge or directional view before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 14, 2026. Uses only Binance futures data. Key Quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 37 separate Yes/No markets, each with a distinct price threshold ranging from $20.9999 to $59.9999. Each resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI is above the specified threshold at exactly 5 PM EDT on April 14, 2026. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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