TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,997,338

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,395,155,069

395,664

Markets across

30,076

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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HYPE Up or Down - April 12, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

HYPE Up or Down - April 12, 5PM ET

Volume:
$114

$22 or above

 - Kalshi

$22 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Apr 12, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$22 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$24 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$23 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$25 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$26 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$27 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$28 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$29 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$30 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$31 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$32 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$33 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$34 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$35 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$36 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$37 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$38 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$39 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
Yes
polymarket

HYPE Up or Down - April 12, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$60 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$61 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$40 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$41 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$42 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$43 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group tracks whether the HYPE token price moves up or down on April 12, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle comparison (open vs. close) from Binance HYPE/USDT futures, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI index with multiple price thresholds. The markets measure directional price movement but employ fundamentally different data sources and resolution methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi employ distinct data sources (Binance HYPE/USDT futures vs. CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI index), measurement windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and resolution structures (binary Up/Down vs. 38 tiered Yes/No thresholds). These differences create material settlement risk and potential outcome misalignment.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution paths. Polymarket's binary structure is simple but depends entirely on Binance candle finalization. Kalshi's 38 thresholds create granular exposure but introduce index-specific basis risk. Cross-platform arbitrage is possible if CF Benchmarks and Binance prices diverge at the resolution timestamp. Monitor both feeds in real-time and do not assume correlation.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at April 12, 5 PM ET. Source: Binance futures HYPEUSDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 38 separate Yes/No markets, each triggered by whether the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI exceeds a specific threshold at exactly 5 PM EDT on April 12, 2026. Thresholds range from $21.9999 to $60.9999 in increments of $1 (with some gaps). Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.