TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
HYPE Up or Down - April 12, 5PM ET
Volume:
$114
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the HYPE token price moves up or down on April 12, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle comparison (open vs. close) from Binance HYPE/USDT futures, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI index with multiple price thresholds. The markets measure directional price movement but employ fundamentally different data sources and resolution methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ distinct data sources (Binance HYPE/USDT futures vs. CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI index), measurement windows (1-hour candle vs. 60-second average), and resolution structures (binary Up/Down vs. 38 tiered Yes/No thresholds). These differences create material settlement risk and potential outcome misalignment.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution paths. Polymarket's binary structure is simple but depends entirely on Binance candle finalization. Kalshi's 38 thresholds create granular exposure but introduce index-specific basis risk. Cross-platform arbitrage is possible if CF Benchmarks and Binance prices diverge at the resolution timestamp. Monitor both feeds in real-time and do not assume correlation.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at April 12, 5 PM ET. Source: Binance futures HYPEUSDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 38 separate Yes/No markets, each triggered by whether the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI exceeds a specific threshold at exactly 5 PM EDT on April 12, 2026. Thresholds range from $21.9999 to $60.9999 in increments of $1 (with some gaps). Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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