TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
HYPE Up or Down - April 10, 5PM ET
Volume:
$768
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether the HYPE token price moves up or down on April 10, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI 60-second average at a specific price threshold. The two platforms employ fundamentally different measurement methodologies and data sources.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible data sources (Binance futures candle vs CF Benchmarks index), different time windows (1-hour candle vs 60-second average), and different resolution logic (directional comparison vs absolute price thresholds). A single HYPE price movement may resolve to Up on Polymarket but No on all Kalshi markets, or vice versa.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge or arbitrage between Polymarket and Kalshi HYPE markets on April 10. Confirm the exact settlement price from each platform's official source before claiming resolution. Polymarket resolves on Binance candle data; Kalshi resolves on CF Benchmarks index data. These may diverge by several percentage points.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance HYPE/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves Up if close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM ET on April 10, 2026. Resolves Down otherwise. Uses a single exchange (Binance) and a single trading pair (HYPE/USDT futures). Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 50 separate binary markets, each with a Yes/No resolution tied to CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI index. Each market resolves Yes if the 60-second simple average of UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from $9.9999 to $58.9999). Uses a cryptocurrency index, not a single exchange. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' UHYPEUSDRTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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