TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Hurricanes vs. Utah
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 11 at 5:00PM ET: If the Hurricanes win, the market will resolve to "Hurricanes". If the Utah win, the market will resolve to "Utah". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different event scopes. Kalshi markets resolve based on margin thresholds (1.5+ or 2.5+ goal wins) regardless of winner, while Polymarket markets resolve based on winner identity (Hurricanes vs. Utah) and total goals scored. These are incompatible resolution frameworks for the same underlying game.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on margin size (close vs. blowout), not team identity. If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on which team wins and total scoring. A Hurricanes 3-1 win resolves YES on Kalshi (>2.5 goal margin) but YES on Polymarket (Hurricanes winner). A Utah 2-0 win resolves YES on Kalshi (>1.5 goal margin) but YES on Polymarket (Utah winner). Do not assume the same outcome across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if either team wins by a specified margin threshold (1.5+ or 2.5+ goals), independent of team identity. All four Kalshi markets reward large margins regardless of winner: 'If Utah wins by over 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Carolina wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a margin-based, team-agnostic framework.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves based on team identity (Hurricanes vs. Utah winner) and total combined goals scored (Over/Under thresholds at 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) and spread outcomes (Hurricanes or Utah by 2+ or 3+ goals). Moneyline market states 'If the Hurricanes win, the market will resolve to Hurricanes. If the Utah win, the market will resolve to Utah.' Spread markets tie outcome to specific team and margin: 'This market will resolve to Hurricanes if the Hurricanes win the game by 2 or more goals.'
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