TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Houston Dynamo vs. Seattle Sounders FC
Volume:
$1,027,557
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the MLS match between Houston Dynamo and Seattle Sounders FC scheduled for April 4, 2026. Three binary markets track the three mutually exclusive outcomes within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time: a Houston win, a Seattle win, or a draw. The markets collectively partition all possible match results.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory and unresolvable: all three outcomes (Seattle win, Houston win, Tie) are marked to resolve YES, making it impossible to distinguish between them or settle the market. Polymarket uses standard binary logic with three separate markets (Draw, Houston Win, Seattle Win) that properly partition the outcome space and align with MLS Soccer official statistics.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi's market entirely—it contains a fatal logical flaw where every possible outcome resolves YES, making settlement impossible. Trade only on Polymarket's three binary markets (Draw, Houston Win, Seattle Win), which use clear resolution logic tied to official MLS Soccer statistics and proper cancellation/postponement rules.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Market structure is logically contradictory. All three mutually exclusive outcomes (Seattle win, Houston win, Tie) are each marked to resolve YES if they occur. This creates an unresolvable market where every possible game result triggers YES on all three markets simultaneously, violating basic logical consistency. No clear resolution mechanism exists.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard sports betting logic: Three separate binary markets properly partition the outcome space—Draw (YES if tie, NO otherwise), Houston Win (YES if Houston wins, NO otherwise), Seattle Win (YES if Seattle wins, NO otherwise). Resolution source is official MLS Soccer statistics, with a 2-hour publication window and credible reporting fallback. Cancellation resolves Draw to YES; postponement keeps markets open until completion.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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