TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Hotstuff FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Hotstuff's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Most liquid price source available for the official Hotstuff token; official launch announcement via Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff)Core resolution logic:
- FDV = total token supply multiplied by token price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
- Only official tokens launched by Hotstuff qualify; stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs, and synthetic tokens are excluded
- Token must be actively and publicly tradable to qualify as a launch
- Each market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified threshold, No otherwise
- If no token launches by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in the group resolve to No
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Multiple token launches: If Hotstuff launches multiple tokens, only the first official token launch counts; subsequent tokens do not trigger resolution
- Liquidity source ambiguity: If multiple exchanges have comparable liquidity, the resolution source uses the most liquid venue; in case of tie, the primary centralized exchange listing is preferred
- Token supply changes: FDV calculation uses total token supply as of 4:00 PM ET on the resolution day; any supply adjustments after launch but before resolution time are included in the calculation
- Stablecoin or memecoin classification dispute: Hotstuff's official designation and community consensus determine token classification; if ambiguous, the resolution authority defers to Hotstuff's own statements
- Launch timing edge case: Launch is defined as when the token becomes actively and publicly tradable; if trading begins late on Day 0, resolution measurement occurs at 4:00 PM ET on Day 1
Timing:
Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the official public launch of Hotstuff's token. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets resolve to No on that deadline date.Follow the signals, not the noise
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