TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves
Volume:
$4,892,615
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 5 at 7:00PM ET: If the Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Hornets". If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different market structures for this event group. Kalshi offers 37 binary markets on individual player performance thresholds (points, rebounds, assists), while Polymarket offers 30 markets covering team moneyline, spreads, totals, and player prop O/U markets. The platforms resolve on different underlying events and metrics.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on whether ANY of 37 specific player performance thresholds are exceeded (a disjunctive OR logic across all markets). If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on discrete outcomes: team winner, point differential, combined scoring, or individual player performance O/U. These are not equivalent hedges. A Kalshi YES resolves if LaMelo scores 10+ points OR Julius Randle scores 10+ points OR any other threshold hits; a Polymarket player prop resolves only on that specific player's specific threshold. Do not assume cross-platform arbitrage.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi structures this group as a single disjunctive event with 37 binary YES/NO markets, each tied to a specific player performance threshold (e.g., 'Rudy Gobert 15+ Points', 'Kon Knueppel 20+ Points'). All markets reference the same game (Charlotte vs Minnesota, April 5, 2026) and resolve YES if that threshold is met. The resolution logic is: 'If [Player] records [X]+ [Stat] in the Charlotte vs Minnesota professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates 37 independent binary outcomes, not a single unified market.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures this group as 30 discrete markets covering three categories: (1) team outcomes (moneyline, spreads at multiple thresholds, first-half spreads), (2) game totals (full game and first-half O/U at 11 different thresholds), and (3) individual player props (points, rebounds, assists O/U). Each market resolves independently based on official NBA box score data. For example, 'Hornets vs. Timberwolves' resolves to 'Hornets' or 'Timberwolves' based on final score; 'Brandon Miller: Points O/U 20.5' resolves YES if he scores more than 20.5 points. These are structurally distinct from Kalshi's player threshold markets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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