TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Holstein Kiel vs. FC Schalke 04
Volume:
$441,489
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the professional Bundesliga 2 soccer match between Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 scheduled for February 15, 2026. Markets are offered on three possible outcomes: Kiel win, draw, or Schalke win, with resolution based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time and penalties).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's cancellation clause creates a logical inconsistency: it resolves all three mutually exclusive outcomes to Yes simultaneously if the game is canceled, whereas Polymarket resolves draw to Yes but win markets to No under cancellation.Hero Tip:
Monitor for cancellation risk closely. If cancellation occurs, Kalshi markets will all resolve Yes (creating arbitrage), while Polymarket will split (draw Yes, wins No). Hedge accordingly or avoid exposure to cancellation scenarios.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: Kiel win Yes/No, Schalke win Yes/No, and draw Yes/No. If canceled with no makeup, draw resolves Yes and both win markets resolve No. Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes"' (draw) or '"No"' (wins).
- Kalshi: Three categorical outcomes (Kiel win, Tie, Schalke win) each resolve to Yes if that outcome occurs. Cancellation logic is ambiguous: all three outcomes would technically resolve Yes if no game is played. Key quote: 'If Kiel wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Schalke wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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