TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Hertha BSC vs. Holstein Kiel
Volume:
$204,165
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming 2. Bundesliga game, scheduled for Saturday, April 25, 2026 between Hertha BSC and Holstein Kiel.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market structure is logically incoherent: all three outcomes (Hertha win, Kiel win, Tie) resolve to YES simultaneously, making the market fundamentally unresolvable and creating a logical contradiction with standard match resolution principles.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. The resolution logic is broken—it will resolve YES regardless of the match outcome, making it impossible to establish a true binary or ternary prediction. Polymarket offers coherent, mutually exclusive outcomes and should be the only trading venue for this event.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive binary markets: Holstein Kiel win (YES/NO), Draw (YES/NO), and Hertha BSC win (YES/NO). Exactly one outcome occurs in a standard match, and exactly one market resolves YES. Resolution source is official Bundesliga statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours post-match. Cancellation without makeup resolves Draw to YES, others to NO.
- Kalshi: Market structure states: 'If Hertha wins... resolves to Yes. If Kiel wins... resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility where all three mutually exclusive outcomes trigger YES resolution simultaneously. No cancellation clause or tie-breaking logic is provided. Quote: 'If Hertha wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Kiel wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.