TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Heracles Almelo vs. SBV Excelsior
kalshi
polymarket

Heracles Almelo vs. SBV Excelsior

Volume:
$238,314

Draw (Heracles Almelo vs. SBV Excelsior)

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 21, 2026

Closed: Mar 20, 3:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Draw (Heracles Almelo vs. SBV Excelsior)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$60,325
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$49,649
N/A
N/A
$37,379
Settled
Yes
polymarket

SBV Excelsior

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$44,309
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Excelsior

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,640
N/A
N/A
$18,542
Settled
No
kalshi

Heracles Almelo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,338
N/A
N/A
$14,709
Settled
No
polymarket

Heracles Almelo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,052
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers a professional Eredivisie soccer match between Heracles Almelo and SBV Excelsior scheduled for March 20, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess the outcome (win/draw/loss) based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory, with all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Heracles win, draw, Excelsior win) each resolving to Yes. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable as a prediction instrument. Polymarket's three separate binary markets are logically consistent but have divergent cancellation rules.Hero tip: Avoid trading the Kalshi market due to logical impossibility. Use Polymarket's three separate markets (Heracles win, draw, Excelsior win) which are independently resolvable. Note that Polymarket's draw market resolves Yes on cancellation while win markets resolve No on cancellation—this asymmetry should inform your hedging strategy.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market structure treats all three possible outcomes (Heracles win, draw, Excelsior win) as resolving to Yes. This creates a logical contradiction where the market cannot fail to resolve Yes regardless of actual match result. No differentiation between outcomes.
  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with outcome-specific resolution. Draw market: Yes if draw, No otherwise, but Yes if canceled. Heracles market: Yes if Heracles wins, No otherwise, but No if canceled. Excelsior market: Yes if Excelsior wins, No otherwise, but No if canceled. Asymmetric cancellation logic across markets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.