TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Heracles Almelo vs. SBV Excelsior
Volume:
$238,314
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a professional Eredivisie soccer match between Heracles Almelo and SBV Excelsior scheduled for March 20, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess the outcome (win/draw/loss) based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory, with all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Heracles win, draw, Excelsior win) each resolving to Yes. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable as a prediction instrument. Polymarket's three separate binary markets are logically consistent but have divergent cancellation rules.Hero Tip:
Avoid trading the Kalshi market due to logical impossibility. Use Polymarket's three separate markets (Heracles win, draw, Excelsior win) which are independently resolvable. Note that Polymarket's draw market resolves Yes on cancellation while win markets resolve No on cancellation—this asymmetry should inform your hedging strategy.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Market structure treats all three possible outcomes (Heracles win, draw, Excelsior win) as resolving to Yes. This creates a logical contradiction where the market cannot fail to resolve Yes regardless of actual match result. No differentiation between outcomes.
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with outcome-specific resolution. Draw market: Yes if draw, No otherwise, but Yes if canceled. Heracles market: Yes if Heracles wins, No otherwise, but No if canceled. Excelsior market: Yes if Excelsior wins, No otherwise, but No if canceled. Asymmetric cancellation logic across markets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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