TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Heat vs. Pacers
Volume:
$12,047,019
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market resolves based on the outcome of the NBA game between the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers scheduled for March 29 at 5:00 PM ET. The winner is determined by the final score including any overtime periods, with the market resolving to either 'Heat' or 'Pacers' accordingly.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's moneyline market resolves YES for both Heat and Pacers wins, creating a logical contradiction where every outcome produces a YES resolution. Polymarket correctly structures mutually exclusive outcomes (Heat, Pacers, or tie-break scenarios), making Kalshi's market fundamentally unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi moneyline market. It contains a critical data integrity error: both resolution conditions (Miami wins OR Indiana wins) resolve to YES, meaning the market will always resolve YES regardless of the actual game outcome. This violates basic prediction market logic. All other markets (spreads, player props, totals) on both platforms appear structurally sound and can be traded with confidence.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Contains a critical logical contradiction in the moneyline market. Both resolution conditions state 'then the market resolves to Yes' — 'If Miami wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Indiana wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This means every possible outcome (Heat win or Pacers win) triggers YES, making the market unresolvable and contradicting the binary nature of a moneyline. All other Kalshi markets (spreads, player props, totals) are not present in the source data provided.
- Polymarket: Aligned with sound prediction market structure: Correctly implements mutually exclusive outcomes for the moneyline ('If the Heat win, the market will resolve to Heat. If the Pacers win, the market will resolve to Pacers.'). Polymarket also includes proper tie-break and cancellation rules ('If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50'), and provides 60+ additional markets (spreads, player props, totals, first-half markets) with consistent, resolvable logic across all offerings.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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