TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Hawks vs. Heat
Volume:
$7,747,604
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 12 at 6:00PM ET: If the Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Hawks". If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Kalshi resolves to YES for either outcome (Hawks win OR Heat win), making the market logically unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures multiple distinct markets (Moneyline, Spreads, Totals, Player Props) with mutually exclusive outcomes.Hero Tip:
Do NOT trade on Kalshi's market — it contains a critical logical flaw that makes settlement impossible. The market states 'If Atlanta wins... resolves to Yes' AND 'If Miami wins... resolves to Yes', leaving no path to NO resolution. Trade only on Polymarket, which offers properly structured binary outcomes across all market types.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's moneyline market contains a data integrity failure. Both resolution conditions resolve to YES: 'If Atlanta wins the Atlanta at Miami professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Miami wins the Atlanta at Miami professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This leaves no logical path to NO resolution, making the market fundamentally unresolvable.
- Polymarket: Aligned with proper market structure: Polymarket defines 47 distinct, properly-structured markets with mutually exclusive outcomes. The Hawks vs. Heat moneyline resolves to 'Hawks' if Hawks win or 'Heat' if Heat win. All spread markets (Hawks -4.5, -5.5, -6.5, -2.5; Heat -1.5, -3.5, -8.5 through -22.5) use threshold-based logic with clear binary outcomes. All totals markets (O/U 239.5 through 253.5) resolve to Over or Under based on combined score thresholds. All player prop markets resolve Yes/No based on individual stat thresholds. First-half markets follow identical binary logic. All markets include postponement and cancellation contingencies with 50-50 resolution for cancellations.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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