TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig
Volume:
$773,301
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig Bundesliga match scheduled for March 1, 2026. Kalshi offers four markets based on goal-differential thresholds (Hamburg >1.5, Hamburg >2.5, Leipzig >1.5, Leipzig >2.5), while Polymarket offers three binary markets (Leipzig win, Hamburg win, draw). Both platforms resolve based on 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi markets resolve on goal-differential thresholds (settlement value varies by margin), while Polymarket markets resolve on binary match outcomes (win/loss/draw). These represent different market architectures, not contradictory rules for the same event.Hero Tip:
Understand that Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing different things. Kalshi's four markets partition the outcome space by goal margin; Polymarket's three markets partition by winner. Both use the same underlying event (90 minutes plus stoppage time, no extra time or penalties) but monetize different aspects. Arbitrage is not possible; these are complementary, not substitutable.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Four separate markets, each with a goal-differential threshold. Hamburg >1.5 goals, Hamburg >2.5 goals, Leipzig >1.5 goals, Leipzig >2.5 goals. Each resolves Yes if the condition is met, No otherwise. Key Quote: 'If Hamburg wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Leipzig at Hamburg professional Bundesliga soccer game originally scheduled for Mar 1, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three binary markets covering all possible outcomes: Leipzig win (Yes/No), Hamburg win (Yes/No), draw (Yes/No). Each resolves based on the final match result within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Key Quote: 'If RB Leipzig wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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